The other half

According to George W. Bush's national security advisor Stephen Hadley, there are "a lot of false promises today" in Latin America. His jefe's forthcoming tour of the region would seem to indicate that he believes there might still be room for a few more.

Dubya has said that he will use his multi-stop tour to showcase "the other half of his agenda." (It's a shame that he has left this other 50% until the last 20% of his administration.)

"And I'm going to make this pledge," he added yesterday. "The goal of this great country, the goal of a country full of generous people, is an Americas where the dignity of every person is respected, where all find room at the table, and where opportunity reaches into every village and every home." Aww.

There's even wild talk of including workers' rights in future trade accords! This will all of course be welcome news to the thousands of Guatemalans that his government has begun to re-naturalise.

More pointedly perhaps, Hadley noted that "if governments make the right choices, they will have a partner in the United States."

This is the beginning then of the great counter-attack. In recent times the Washington Consensus has appeared restricted to a narrow range of ZIP codes in the DC area, as Caracas, La Paz, Quito, Buenos Aires (sort of) and Managua have aligned themselves with Havana in their enthusiastic repudiation of the Yanquis.

The Bush administration is indeed fortunate not to have 'lost' Latin America to an even greater extent whilst they were otherwise distracted by making a mess of the Middle East. Chávez, who has a counter-tour planned, has failed to fully exploit his regional opportunity over the past few years, and has experienced significant set-backs, most notably in Peru and Mexico. Securing cheap public transport for benefits scroungers in London won't rank as his greatest geopolitical achievement, and given the pivotal significance now of the pragmatic Lula, encouraging his cuate Evo to nationalise Brazilian-held energy assets in Bolivia will surely be deemed to have been a bit precipitate by future historians.

Yet La Menchu's recent declaration of her intent to stand for the Presidency in Guatemala will have served as a timely reminder that new fronts could yet be about to open in what El Pais yesterday dubbed The battle for Latin America. Bush arrives there on Sunday.