Tuesday, April 07, 2020

Moving goalposts

The rules for ending lockdowns were established by Italy, the first country in the West to impose one: Two whole incubation periods of 15 days have to pass after the last new positive case is detected. 

Then there follows a 90-day heightened vigilance period in which many mass or social activities remain restricted. 

So, at any single moment one is a minimum of a month away from release. Four from a return to some sort of pre-pandemic normality. Yet in reality, much further. 

There were four new cases here in Guatemala today, one a man in his 70s from San Juan del Obispo. 

France has seen a rise in fatalities, while Italy, which had appeared to be past the worst, has had a new surge. 

In Europe only Spain appears to have peaked. But that just means the number of new cases detected each day has started a slow decline. They remain a long way from that final 30 days. 

Even China still reports 20+ new cases a day. 

And a strong sense that what is to come afterwards could well be worse has started to take hold. 

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