More silver linings, beyond the fact that we won’t have to endure another contested US election, which would probably have destabilised American democracy more than anything Trump can do from inside the White House, especially with the Senate providing 'guard rails' as its Republican leader put it this morning…
Unless Trump decides to go full South American, there’s a natural 4-year term limit to how much more of his nonsense we will have to endure. (Complemented by the age factor.)
This gives the Dems a significant full reset opportunity in 2028, and they will need to take full advantage of the preparation time that they seemingly lacked this time around.
Whatever one thinks of the domestication of the Donald by the GOP, he came into this campaign less as an outsider surrounded by genuinely fringe and toxic Alt-Right ideologues. In fact, in spite of all the lying he continues to do, it’s the Dems’ base that has looked the more detached from factual reality at times.
The Republicans might have shifted to a a Trump alternative, Trump-lite, still focussing on the key populist issues and the economy and still won yesterday. That would have set up something looking more like a pencilled-in 8-year period in the wilderness for the progressive agenda.
Instead, as of today, the clock starts to tick towards a definitive conclusion and even if Donald does deliver on some of his ‘winning’ promises, we know that much of this Presidency will have the appearance of a shit show. And with any luck, by 2028 the Dems will have finally learned how to take advantage of this without relying exclusively on ad hominem attacks and fear mongering.
Vance has obvious limitations. Elon? Eek.
Harris did not improve on Biden’s performance in a single country across the country. Small percentage drop-offs everywhere amounted to an apparently substantial shift overall. Great care must be taken by the Dems in three years, but ideally sooner, in identifying the candidate and message combination which will likely reverse these losses amongst key ethnic and demographic groups. They need to show a much better understanding of the sensibilities driving these groups relative to the proposition they pump out.
Meanwhile, the next four years could turn out to be truly pivotal in European history, for Trump has now assumed the role of crash test dummy. If he delivers back home in a way that satisfies the instincts of his voters, especially the newer ones, this could empower political movements across the old continent, for whom border control would be their political battering ram. If he fails, or at least disappoints, surrounding himself in unbearable chaos, then the European centre might yet hold.