I am aware of the plethora of really bad analogies that have attached themselves to the situation in the Middle East.
And in spite of that I am going to put one of my own out there, based largely on a historical counter-factual which derives from my own geographical location and its often troubled history.
You may find reasons to object to it. If you so, say why, because I would be genuinely fascinated to know about them and debate them.
Here we go....
Iberian Catholic colonisers arrive in Central America and establish a measure of control. But the Maya in particular put up a persistent pattern of resistance and eventually the conquerors conclude that they have little choice but to send the majority of the Maya away and into exile around the world.
Centuries pass. The empire lingers on in one form or another until the early part of the twentieth.
At the moment it finally collapses, a group of modern powers from outside the region intervene, partly, but not completely, for selfish reasons, their basic aim being to oversee a transition to a new era of relatively stable nation states based on ethnic and cultural identity.
There are pressures within and without. Those who predominantly identify with the colonising Catholic culture are not sure if they want their own sovereign states or whether they want to form their own ‘imperial’ blocks. They fight it out for a while.
Meanwhile, the remaining Maya in the region declare a desire for their own sovereign territory which will consist of a fraction of their ancient homeland, the Mayab. They declare an intention to invite members of the Mayan diaspora to return there and help build this new society where Yucatec Mayan will be the main language and they will worship their ancient deities.
The international community decides that they can have the Peten region and the southern part of the Yucatan peninsula for their new state. Within this territory some 40% of the population will be non-Maya, either mixed blood mestizos or individuals of European descent who have been broadly content with the colonial culture, if not the empire itself. Let’s call them Iberians.
Their property rights are not under threat, but they will have to adapt to living within a sovereign Mayan state.
It is already a well-known fact internationally that non-Mayans will be more secure inside a Mayan state than vice versa, which is one of the reasons that the need for a Mayan state was so pressing in the first place, as well as the fact that while discussions about the new lines on the map continue, many Mayans residing in Europe start to experience a terrible persecution.
The international community really ought to have done more for the other non-Catholic ethnic groups in the region, but in the end caved in blackmail from the resource-rich Iberian League, and allowed them to assume control of 97% of the former empire. Within these Iberian states much of the former colonial system would persist and minorities would suffer, and none of them would show any inclination to follow a path of liberal democracy.
Anyway, at the very moment the new Mayan state declares its independence, some of the non-Mayans inside it and those beyond the borders get ready to rise up and murder all the Maya. The mere existence of Mayan self-determination is a profound offence to their Catholic God, they announce.
With help from the neighbouring ‘post-colonial’ Iberian states they begin a war of extermination, but the Maya have had enough of their nonsense and are better organised and thus achieve an unlikely victory.
At this point several hundred thousand Iberians are forced to abandon their homes and become refugees. This occurs in part because the Maya no longer feel safe living next door to people who want them dead, but also because they were told to get out of the way by their invading allies.
When the war ends, nearly all the Maya who had been living outside the Mayab in Central America are also displaced and most of them come to live within the new Mayan state. They number more than the Iberians who lost their homes as a result of the war, yet almost nobody remembers this.
Nor really that many Iberians continue to live inside the Mayab and enjoy civil rights there that no other Iberians are able to enjoy outside of it.
However, the displaced Yucatec Iberians are never in turn absorbed by their co-religionists in the neighbouring Iberian states. Instead they are told to hold position as long-term political pawns in 'camps' for as long as it takes (even if this is forever), because the Iberian League wants the world to know that they did not in fact lose this war, they are simply awaiting their eventual God-given victory. From the late 1950s onward they pervert the UN body set up to assist the refugees so that it is fully on board with the underlying ideological project.
For decades the Mayan state is repeatedly attacked and repeatedly triumphs against its aggressors. After one of these intense wars, the Mayab takes back control of the northern Yucatan. They do not formally integrate it into their nation however, as their plan is to trade it back to the Iberians in return for lasting peace: the so-called two state solution. But it is thereafter referred to as ‘occupied Yucatan’, which effectively disguises the real blame for the on-going situation.
The sad truth is that the Iberians don’t want peace. In the 1960s they change their name to Yucatecos and demand ‘freedom’ for the whole of the Yucatan peninsula ‘from the gulf to the sea’ including the Peten. They don’t want their own state, they simply want to put a definitive end to the affront posed by the Mayan state.
They realise that in the English-speaking world there are some particularly dumb students who can be persuaded to see the Mayans who returned to the sovereign Mayan state after their long exile as ‘settler colonists’ who stole the Yucatan rather savagely from the poor oppressed Iberians, and duly leverage their support.
They are also getting a lot of help from another regional power with its own distinct ethnic base, the Inca, who have become Catholic fundamentalists and desire nothing more than to see the elimination of the Maya.
'Occupied Yucatan' now has a measure of self-government, even international recognition. Half of it is run by a crazy fascist mafia financed by the Inca, and the other half by a corrupt mob that pays out cash rewards to any scumbag who murders a Mayan.
And that’s it. The analogy could be extended from here, but you get the general drift. People who chant ‘Free Palestine’ imagine themselves to be bravely anti-colonial, when in fact they are precisely the opposite.
The Yucatecos lost the war. They need to finally accept this, then accept the peace and the territorial deal that comes with it, and all the surrounding Iberian powers need to be on board, including the Incas.
They will have their own state, but this state needs to be able to live alongside the Mayab and function within an international order where the legitimacy of everyone’s sovereignty in the region is both recognised and protected.
Yucatecos should be free to travel around the Mayab, and Mayans around the Iberian world, without fear of violence or repression on either side.