If there is to be an internal threat to Putin in the months and years to come, my own suspicion is that it will come not from the (relatively) impoverished oligarchs or even the Moscow masses, but from those that have shared his feverish nationalist dream of a 'greater' Russia.
There will be many in that camp who are already feeling an element of shame — not for the mass murder that Putin has unleashed against a territory and people they insist should be returned to the mother — but for the relative weakness in Russian might that has been exposed in the conduct of this war.
Along with that, considerable frustration that the likes of Moldova and Georgia are already on course to join the EU along with a still unyielding Ukraine. Their dream of completeness is being ruined, in some cases before the tanks can roll — and in a manner that promises to be lasting.
Hitler seized most of the continent and then fought to the bitter end as it was prized from his grip, piece by bloody piece. Putin's putative restoration of empire is apparently already stalling not far from the vestibule.
It's one thing to model oneself on the great emperors and conquerors of the past — Ivan the Terrible, Peter the Great, Alexander III — but then you have to avoid botching your much-publicised debut on the subjugation stage.
The oligarchs have probably decided on a policy of wait and see. Time is not on Vlad's side whatever happens. The state will be bankrupt long before its wealthiest citizens, regardless of the sanctions now imposed.
The nationalists will be fuming. Putin is now in dire need of a bone to toss them.
I tweeted the other day that Vladimir Putin is currently more likely to be remembered as the 'new' Kaiser Bill (another 'late bloomer') than the new Adolf.
3 comments:
is that it will come not from the (relatively) impoverished oligarchs.
I think you are right on that count, even though I wish it otherwise. It was on paper wealth, working money, we'll call it industrial wastage. Setbacks are normal with those who steal for a living. Putin is a major reason they are rich, degrees of rich are relative, rich is not. They will stay with the guy who brought them to the dance. Now the military crew-they may see things differently.
An expert I heard yesterday suggested that there is another quarter for P to worry about. Not just the fanatics but the organisations within the state that he has thrown under the bus by going ahead with this invasion without properly preparing them.
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