The word on how the next stage of the ‘process’ will play out is as follows...
The CC will, along with some hand-wringing and vocal regret, annul the 2023 elections in line with the judgment already fed to them by the MP.
All the victorious candidates (mayors, deputies etc. etc.) will present amparos and in almost all cases these will be accepted.
Not however in the case of the Binomio Presidencial.
It will be interesting to see what happens here in Antigua, as Victor Hugo has not exactly been acting like a man running down the clock. Mini Muni and all that...
I’d hesitate to use the phrase “a bit too obvious” in this context as that has never seemed to be a restraining factor for this ridiculous regime.
Yet such a manoeuvre would undoubtedly prompt an unhesitating and fairly brutal response from the international community, almost at the same time Guatemala is kissing goodbye to its credit rating and can no longer afford to pay its debt.
Anyone participating is likely to be Magnitsky’d off the map. And this will probably include some of the beneficiaries of the aforementioned amparos.
Hong Kong Disneyland might still be an option, if you have a Beijing-issued credit card and make sure your flights only connect in authoritarian dictatorships.
And it is for this reason I think the coup is still likely to falter, because not all the players on the pitch have the same incentives to press ahead no matter what the consequences.
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