Hear me out...

This may indeed be one of those posts requiring that prefix.

Four more years of Trump might just be what America needs to end the cycle of ideological escalation between Left and Right.

Particularly, these four years, which are almost certainly finite, and which have arrived on the back of an unlikely coalition between pretty much all of America’s distinguishable groups, except the affluent urban classes who have signed up for the nonsense emanating out of the ‘progressive’ extreme.

Trump may be more inclined to juggle this time around. On the previous occasion he had gained a somewhat sneaky win, losing the popular vote and only getting to the Oval Office by stirring up the deplorables.

Obama, meanwhile, was widely regarded as having ushered in an era when the traditional Republican messages would be forever on a losing demographic wicket, as more and more non-whites adhered to the less self-reliant, more identity-obsessed message of the Democrats. To have any hope of power in this new America, the Right had to go all in with the non-traditional media and the more niche forms of worldview...shall we say.

Trump didn’t refrain from repeating this, of course. But as a somewhat more domesticated figure within the GOP establishment, and spurred on by the sheer mediocrity of Biden’s presidency, he opened new salients amidst more mainstream populations.

 

Whether he understands this or not, the party around him will have twigged that this new majority, popular vote and all, is the way forward for their side and that holding it together has to be a priority given the Trump-less reset coming down the line in 2028. 

 

As for the Democrats, they obviously believed that defeating Trump once without completely burying him would be enough. This led to complacency, indecision at the top and ideological over-exuberance below. Surely now the lessons have to be learned, and they need to re-seat themselves within a discourse that is meaningful to more than just the inhabitants of Manhattan and a thin coastal strip on the western seaboard. 

 

If Harris had won on Tuesday I think the auto-catalytic development of almost hysterical (and authoritarian-tending) extremes would likely have continued. I think now there is at least a possibility that both parties will reconsolidate in the common sense zone. 

 

You may not particularly care for centrist politics, but it is surely dangerous for democracy in America when each main party construes the election in apocalyptic terms, presenting their opponents as the epitome of evil. This has been a race to the bottom for both of them. 

 

Trump may of course not get this at all, and thus spend the whole term like a papal exorcist in a fiend-infested nunnery. 

 

And there is no question that his return has already generated a sense of empowerment amongst his most diabolical followers. Will he try to do just enough of the neo-fascist shtick to keep them on side, or will he gradually lean towards the altogether wealthier (and potentially more valuable) deplorables of Silicon Valley who would be important for Vance, should he pick up the baton in 2028.

Just as it became clear to Republicans that they would again be the party of the majority without close to half of the minority vote, so it must now be clear to the Democrats that their own sometimes divisive, counter-factual and screechy positions have become shibboleths, eroding confidence in their capacity to rule. 

 

Trump of course has no interest in a Democratic party that sounds sensible. Almost as soon as Harris conceded he singled out California and its Governor for his online vitriol because a) he sees that as one of the most likely fronts for the Democratic counter-attack b) he knows that most of the people who voted for him tend to recoil from the California vibe, which in part did for Kamala and c) he has become deft at the wind-up, which is one of the ways he has long prevented his opponents from adopting a more introspective approach. 

 

The first big test will be the mass deportations. Leaving aside the economic cost of removing migrant workers, the process cost (detention, legal to-ings and fro-ings, deportation) is said to amount to $11,000 per person. Vance says they will start with 1m illegals, so that’s $11bn to kick things off. 

 

Trump’s new Hispanic voters appear to believe that this initial tranche, less than 10% of the 11m total of undocumented people in the US, will largely be made up of the rogue element, not families who have bought into the American dream. But the new regime will need this measure to have a degree of showbiz appeal. After all, Biden deported more people than Trump 1.0, and nobody really noticed or cared. So in order to be seen to be following through with the campaign promises, this White House is likely to go after the real low hanging fruit, many of whom may be less deserving of the outcome.

This in turn will provoke anger from the Left, which the Right needs to some extent, but in manageable quantities, otherwise we’ll quickly be back where we were, in ideological Armageddon.

It would not just be the counter-productive ideological turbine thus set to spin ever faster. The economies of Central America depend heavily on remittances sent home by migrant workers. Greater hardship down here, coupled with the growing climate emergency, which Trump will clearly do nothing to address, may fuel ever greater levels of migration northwards, no matter how ‘closed’ the US government can make the southern border appear to be.