Feeling the Strain

I thought we'd all agreed to stop naming SARS-Cov-2 variants after places?

It will take several weeks to determine if the Botswana / B.1.1529 strain* evades our defences significantly, both in terms of the various vaccines and any natural immunity fortifications we could have developed. 

Meanwhile there will be volatility, in the financial markets...and the media.

And the data, when it arrives, may be a bit iffy. There aren't that many individuals in Southern Africa born with that Neanderthal genetic heritage which is seemingly important from both a protective and un-protective perspective in Europe and America.    

"Almost impossible to contain, even with lockdown..."

News of this 'horrific' pluri-mutation could not have come at a worse time. Several EU members have already been stepping up restrictions in the light of precocious winter surges. In the blink of an eye, travel bans are back.

 

The economic damage covid-19 does comes less from the symptomatic disease than the response of governments and the underlying collective psychology that takes hold as a result. 

Recent experience suggests that another revisit to lockdowns, curfews, early closing times etc. is likely to result in social and political unrest at ground level across the globe. 

It may perhaps be significant that the patient in Belgium who has tested positive for 'Botswana' suffered only mild flu-like symptoms. But the problem seems to be that this variant is up to 500% more infectious than Delta and has already committed it to an early obsolescence within southern Africa.  

It might also be important that this patient arrived in Europe two weeks ago. When other countries start boasting that they have no B.1.1529 cases yet, cover your ears. 

Vaccination programmes could be undermined both in fact and popular imagination. The people potentially most at threat are those that received their second dose or booster in the past month or so, because it does seem that the major vaccine providers are looking at whether they ought to be tweaking their formulas now. 

* Breaking news: it has a moniker — OMICRON, which sounds a bit like a hybrid of OMG and Ulugrun.