The currently rudderless UK government faces a severe political problem and a severe economic problem. There is some overlap, yet there are also areas where they are in a sense incompatible from a policy perspective — addressing one exacerbates the other.
In as much as Penny has said she will keep Jeremy Hunt in the Treasury, as PM she would be like late-stage Liz with a nice voice and some communication skills.
Economic problem? Rishi is your man, but he's not without some noted political naivety.
Most of the time neither political nor economic problems are felt evenly through the electorate and — outside all the media prattle — the Tories can usually count on enough of the painful stuff being someone else's problem. Yet now the country is at a juncture where both the politics and economics are widely excruciating and one has to wonder how Sunak would juggle this.
A triumphantly returning Boris is less far likely to leave Hunt be, and the markets would be observing closely who he installs next door. And politically Boris is always a problem waiting to happen. In short he may deal with part of the existing mess, yet is bound to add to it.
Anyway, I still see the most likely scenario as being Rishi hailed as PM on Monday*. He's already passed the 100 supporter threshold and may end up being the only one to do so.
Boris won't want to enter the contest unless assured of victory and I think there are enough sitting MPs wary of extending the psychodrama to make the result uncertain.
Penny and Boris will already be considering stepping back to permit the coronation, and will have a price in mind.
* An online vote later in the week seems incredibly undesirable in itself, given that the Russians and the Chinese will have had seven days to figure out how to dick around with this.
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